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07/04/2010 - Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Red Bull New York and the Colorado Rapids battled to a 1-1 draw in Major League Soccer action at Dick's Sporting Goods Park on Sunday night.
Omar Cummings and Juan Pablo Angel scored first-half goals for their respective teams in the draw, which was New York's first this season.
The Red Bulls had a three-game winning streak snapped, while Colorado stays unbeaten in its last six MLS fixtures.
The game's first goal was scored in the 15th minute by the home Rapids after a counter attack led by Conor Casey. The big forward found his strike partner Cummings with a perfectly weighted pass to the far post, and the Jamaican fired home for his fourth goal of the season.
New York had a chance to equalize about 10 minutes later when goalkeeper Bouna Coundoul started a quick counter attack with an outlet pass to Dan Richards. Richards then played a pass into space in the offensive third for Angel, but he was snuffed in the box by Colorado goalkeeper Matt Pickens.
But on the ensuing corner kick, Angel collected a Sinisa Ubiparipovic service, took a touch and rocketed a shot into the top right corner for his ninth goal of the season.
The team's battled to a stalemate in the second half, with the best chance being a Mehdi Ballouchy shot off the crossbar behind Coundoul with a little over 20 minutes to play.
New York (8-5-1) is back in action vs. D.C. United on Saturday, while the Rapids (6-3-4) are at Toronto on the same day in their next MLS fixture.
<< Ramirez's homer carries White Sox past Rangers
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alexei Ramirez hit the tie-breaking home
run in the sixth inning to carry Chicago past Texas, 5-3, in the finale of a
three-game set.
Carlos Quentin doubled to drive in a run and scored twice and
<< McCallum boots BC past Edmonton
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul McCallum made all six of his field-goal
attempts and Jamal Robertson added a 61-yard touchdown run to lead British
Columbia to a 25-10 victory over Edmonton in the season opener for both clubs.
Robe
<< O'Toole gets 2nd Futures Tour win in playoff
London, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryann O'Toole beat Angela Buzminski in a playoff
Sunday to win the Falls Auto Group Classic for her second Duramed Futures Tour
victory of the season.
O'Toole and Buzminski both closed with rounds of seven-under
<< Vizquel leaves game in Arlington
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago White Sox infielder Omar Vizquel
left Sunday's game against the Texas Rangers after being hit in the left knee
by a Scott Feldman pitch in the third inning.
Rookie Dayan Viciedo came on to run f
Galaxy welcome back Donovan, Buddle in win over Seattle >>
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Galaxy got star attackers Landon
Donovan and Edson Buddle back from their time with the U.S. national team at
the World Cup in South Africa, and put both right back into the starting
lineup
Wade back in Miami as free-agent wait continues >>
MIAMI (AP) -Dwyane Wade is back in South Florida, and hundreds of Miami Heat fans got early morning wake-up calls in an effort to keep him there for many years to come.The six-time All-Star landed at Miami International Airport a little after 8 a.m.
Line of Scrimmage: NFL GameChangers '10: Wide Receivers >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Everything is bigger in Texas, especially
the hype.
What, do you think the following statement, about a rookie who had been on the
team less than week, would have come out of the mouth of the head coach in
Kennedy hopes to bounce back against Cubs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Diamondbacks starter Ian Kennedy said he didn't know what
led to him walking a career-high nine batters, but he has had plenty of time
to think about it.
Set to start for the first time in nine days, Kennedy will try to ha
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason
LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.
The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.
MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.
A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.
A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.
Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.
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