Big names take to tracks for workouts

Horseracing Betting Lines

06/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Some of the biggest names in thoroughbred racing took to various racetracks for workouts over the last two days. Many of the horses are expected to see action during the summer.

Undefeated champion mare Zenyatta had a half-mile workout at Hollywood Park on Sunday morning. The six-year-old breezed four-furlongs in 49 3/5 seconds. Unbeaten in all 17 career starts, Zenyatta is expected to start in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar on Saturday, August 7. The 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic champ has won the last two editions of the Hirsch.

Also at Hollywood Park, Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy worked six furlongs in 1:13 2/5 as he prepares for the $200,000 Swaps Stakes on Saturday, July 17 at the track.

At Belmont Park on Sunday leading older male thoroughbred Quality Road worked a half-mile in 50.76 and galloped out in 1:03 1/5.

"He went well," said trainer Todd Pletcher who turned 43 on Saturday.

The four-year-old colt will make his next start in the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga Race Course on August 7.

Pletcher sent out Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver for a Sunday breeze. The three-year-old colt went five-furlongs in 1:01 4/5. Owned by WinStar Farm, Super Saver will make his next start at Monmouth Park in the $1 million Haskell Invitational on Sunday, August 1.

"We're pointed for the Haskell," said Pletcher. "He's training great and we're on schedule to be at Monmouth."

Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird both had workouts Monday morning at Churchill Downs. This was Rachel's final work over her home track before the four-year-old champion heads to Saratoga on Wednesday. Mine That Bird continues to prep for his first race of 2010.

The filly, with rider Shaun Bridgmohan, worked five-furlongs in 1:03 and galloped out six-furlongs in 1:17. The 2009 Horse of the Year won the Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs earlier this month for her first win of the year.

With Calvin Borel in the saddle. Mine That Bird breezed five-furlongs in 59 4/5 seconds. The 2009 Kentucky Derby winner was timed in 1:14 3/5 for six- furlongs.

Mine That Bird, who has not started since last November's Breeders' Cup Classic, could make his 2010 debut during the closing weekend of Churchill Downs' Spring Meet. The two possible races for the four-year-old are an allowance race of 1 1/16-miles on Saturday, July 3 or the $175,000 Firecracker Handicap at a mile on turf the next day.

This Sunday at Woodbine is the Queen's Plate, the biggest thoroughbred event in Canada. One of the top contenders for Sunday's 151st running of the race, Artic Fern, suffered an injury on Monday that will prevent him from racing in the Queen's Plate.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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